Simulation of Staple Crop Yields for Determination of Regional Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study in Chonnam Province, Republic of Korea

This study sought to simulate regional variation in staple crop yields in Chonnam Province, Republic of Korea (ROK), in future environments under climate change based on the calibration of crop models in the Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology Transfer 4.6 package. We reproduced mult...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Agronomy (Basel) 2021-12, Vol.11 (12), p.2544
Main Authors: Choi, Jinsil, Ko, Jonghan, An, Kyu-Nam, Qaisrani, Saeed A., Ban, Jong-Oh, Kim, Dong-Kwan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agricultural technology
Barley
Cereal crops
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climate system
crop model
Crop production
Crop yield
Crops
Cultivars
Decision support systems
Environmental impact
Experiments
Food resources
Greenhouse gases
Morphogenesis
Physiology
Productivity
Radiation
Rain
region
Rice
Rice fields
Seeds
Simulation
Soybeans
Sprinkler systems
staple crop
Technology transfer
yield
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Summary:This study sought to simulate regional variation in staple crop yields in Chonnam Province, Republic of Korea (ROK), in future environments under climate change based on the calibration of crop models in the Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology Transfer 4.6 package. We reproduced multiple-year yield data for paddy rice (2013–2018), barley (2000–2018), and soybean (2004–2018) grown in experimental fields at Naju, Chonnam Province, using the CERES-Rice, CERES-Barley, and CROPGRO-Soybean models. A geospatial crop simulation modeling (GCSM) system developed using the crop models was then applied to simulate the regional impacts of climate change on the staple crops according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Simulated crop yields agreed with the corresponding measured crop yields, with root means square deviations of 0.31 ton ha−1 for paddy rice, 0.29 ton ha−1 for barley, and 0.27 ton ha−1 for soybean. We also demonstrated that the GCSM system could effectively simulate spatiotemporal variations in the impact of climate change on staple crop yield. The CERES and CROPGRO models seem to reproduce the effects of climate change on region-wide staple crop production in a monsoonal climate system. Added advancements of the GCSM system could facilitate interpretations of future food resource insecurity and establish a sustainable adaption strategy.
ISSN:2073-4395
2073-4395
DOI:10.3390/agronomy11122544