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Uncertainty components in profile likelihood fits

When a measurement of a physical quantity is reported, the total uncertainty is usually decomposed into statistical and systematic uncertainties. This decomposition is not only useful for understanding the contributions to the total uncertainty, but is also required to propagate these contributions...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The European physical journal. C, Particles and fields Particles and fields, 2024-06, Vol.84 (6), p.593-15, Article 593
Main Authors: Pinto, Andrés, Wu, Zhibo, Balli, Fabrice, Berger, Nicolas, Boonekamp, Maarten, Chapon, Émilien, Kawamoto, Tatsuo, Malaescu, Bogdan
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:When a measurement of a physical quantity is reported, the total uncertainty is usually decomposed into statistical and systematic uncertainties. This decomposition is not only useful for understanding the contributions to the total uncertainty, but is also required to propagate these contributions in subsequent analyses, such as combinations or interpretation fits including results from other measurements or experiments. In profile likelihood fits, widely applied in high-energy physics analyses, contributions of systematic uncertainties are routinely quantified using “impacts,” which are not adequate for such applications. We discuss the difference between impacts and actual uncertainty components, and establish methods to determine the latter in a wide range of statistical models.
ISSN:1434-6052
1434-6044
1434-6052
DOI:10.1140/epjc/s10052-024-12877-5