Projecting the Changes in Multifaceted Characteristics of Heatwave Events Across China

• Published in: Earth's future 2023-03, Vol.11 (3), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Wei, Jia, Wang, Weiguang, Wang, Guoqing, Cao, Mingzhu, Yang, Liyan, Zhang, Shulin, Fu, Jianyu, Xing, Wanqiu
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Amplification; Bias; Climate change; Climate models; Extreme heat; Extreme high temperatures; Heat; Heat waves; High temperature; Maximum temperatures; Regional development; Regions; Simulation; Trends; Variation
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003387

Understanding future variations and trends of heatwave events has critical implications for the ecosystem and human health. However, the diverse metrics of heatwave affect the comparable assessment of heatwave evolution at regional scales. The inadequate consideration of the enhanced warming trend and local antecedent heat conditions at different climate zones undermines the comprehensive understanding of future heatwave changes. Here, we systematically assess variations and trends in duration, frequency, and intensity of heatwave events in China from 1961 to 2100, using historical observations and climate model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The increased rates and trends in the duration and frequency are more evident than those in intensity and severe heatwave days. Regionally, the northern and western regions are projected to suffer longer and more frequent consecutive heatwaves, while southern regions are likely at greater risk of severe heatwave days. A comparison among four scenarios shows that the future heatwave characteristics projected by the high forcing Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5‐8.5) exhibit substantial intensification than those in other three experiments, imposing intractable dangers to numerous organisms and ecosystems. Under the SSP1‐2.6, the acceleration of all heatwave characteristics is projected to slow down in all regions after 2040. In addition to maximum temperature, temperature advections are projected to contribute to heatwave intensification in western regions. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of future variations and trends in heatwave events. The comparable future changes across unevenly developed regions are necessary for improving regional adaptive capacity to extreme heat risk. Plain Language Summary In the past century, China has experienced a clear warming trend. More frequent heatwaves affect crops, vegetations, and water consumption, leading to detrimental impacts on food security and water resource sustainability. Meanwhile, with the rapid development of urbanization and increasing population aging, the high‐temperature vulnerability in China experienced explosive increases. We use historical observations and climate model simulations to quantify the duration, frequency, intensity, and severe heatwave days at regional scales from 1961 to 2100, with consideration of different local antecedent heat conditions at a given station. All regions are projected to experience