Global Warming and Long-Distance Spread of Invasive Discoglossus pictus (Amphibia, Alytidae): Conservation Implications for Protected Amphibians in the Iberian Peninsula

is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. In order to disentangle the conservation implications of the spread of for sensitive native species, we examined the impact o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Animals (Basel) 2022-11, Vol.12 (23), p.3236
Main Authors: Villero, Dani, Montori, Albert, Llorente, Gustavo A, Roura-Pascual, Núria, Geniez, Philippe, Brotons, Lluís
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abiotic factors
Amphibia
Amphibians
Biodiversity
Breeding
Climate change
Climate models
Climate prediction
climatic change
Climatic conditions
Coastal plains
Cohabitation
Conservation
Discoglossidae
Discoglossus
Discoglossus pictus
Discriminant analysis
Dispersal
Dispersion
Endemic species
Generalized linear models
Geographical distribution
Global warming
Greenhouse gases
Indigenous species
invasive species
Native species
niche overlap
Niches
Nonnative species
Pelodytes punctatus
Precipitation
Protected areas
Reptiles & amphibians
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Summary:is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. In order to disentangle the conservation implications of the spread of for sensitive native species, we examined the impact of long-term climate warming on the basis of niche overlap analysis, taking into account abiotic factors. The study area covered the distribution ranges of all genus species in northwestern Africa (659,784 km ), Sicily (27,711 km ), the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France (699,546 km ). Niche overlap was measured from species environmental spaces extracted via PCA, including climate and relief environmental variables. Current and future climatic suitability for each species was assessed in an ensemble-forecasting framework of species distribution models, built using contemporary species data and climate predictors and projected to 2070's climatic conditions. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between and native and endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. In this context, all species will experience an increase in climatic suitability over the next decades, with the only exception being , which could be negatively affected by synergies between global warming and cohabitation with
ISSN:2076-2615
2076-2615
DOI:10.3390/ani12233236