Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Using a time series of UCRB streamflow derived from a tree‐ring based reconstruction of UCRB streamflow for the years 1 CE through 1905 CE, together with naturalized UCR...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2024-03, Vol.51 (5), p.n/a
Main Authors: McCabe, Gregory J., Wolock, David M., Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate change
climate variability
Colorado River
Drought
Global warming
Natural variability
paleoclimate
River basins
Rivers
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Variability
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Summary:Drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Using a time series of UCRB streamflow derived from a tree‐ring based reconstruction of UCRB streamflow for the years 1 CE through 1905 CE, together with naturalized UCRB streamflow values for 1906 CE through 2021 CE, we identify 51 drought events, including the 2000–2021 drought. Although the recent 2000–2021 drought has been relatively severe, it is not the most severe of the UCRB drought events we identified. Results also indicate that natural variability combined with projected climate warming can result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE. Plain Language Summary A long and severe drought has affected much of the western United States since about the year 2000 CE, including the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Comparing this drought to past UCRB droughts (during 1 CE through 2021 CE), we find that the 2000–2021 drought is not the most severe UCRB drought. The results also suggest that natural variability combined with projected climate warming could result in UCRB drought events that are more severe than any drought since 1 CE. Key Points We identify 51 drought events for the years 1 CE through 2021 CE for the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) Twelve of the 51 UCRB droughts we identify were more severe than the 2000–2021 drought Natural variability and/or a 1°C temperature increase can trigger UCRB droughts that are more severe than the 2000–2021 drought
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2023GL107978