Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts of the WRF Model in the Bahía de Banderas Region (Mexico)

The Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera at UNAM, in Mexico, uses the Water Research and Forecasting model to provide weather forecasts to the country. In this study, we downloaded the mean temperature and precipitation forecasts of the first 24 h generated by the WRF model in the center of the countr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Atmosphere 2022-08, Vol.13 (8), p.1220
Main Authors: Velázquez-Ruiz, Antonio, Rodríguez-Uribe, María Carolina, Carrillo-González, Fátima Maciel, Morales-Hernández, Julio Cesar, Cruz-Romero, Bartolo, Bravo-Olivas, Myrna Leticia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric temperature
Correlation coefficient
Correlation coefficients
Floods
Hydrology
Landslides & mudslides
local modeling
Mathematical models
Mean temperatures
mesoscale model
Methods
Modelling
Performance evaluation
Precipitation
Precipitation (Meteorology)
Precipitation forecasting
Precipitation-temperature relationships
Rain
regression analysis
Spatial distribution
Statistical analysis
Temperature
Time series
Urban areas
Weather
weather forecast
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera at UNAM, in Mexico, uses the Water Research and Forecasting model to provide weather forecasts to the country. In this study, we downloaded the mean temperature and precipitation forecasts of the first 24 h generated by the WRF model in the center of the country. Only the time series of our study region (Bahía de Banderas) was processed from this database, from June to October 2010, and these data were compared with the data recorded in six stations to evaluate the performance of the model at a local level. Data from 12 stations were used to construct the observed temperature and precipitation maps for spatial validation. The results show that the model performance was partially acceptable. The correlation coefficient for hourly temperatures was an average of r=0.84. Errors were less than 2 °C with a BIAS of ±1 °C. For the accumulated 24 h precipitation, however, the results were not satisfactory (r=0.26). The model predicted only 25.7% of the rainy days observed. In terms of spatial distribution, ~2.3 times more rain was observed than had been predicted by the model.
ISSN:2073-4433
2073-4433
DOI:10.3390/atmos13081220