Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040

Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013. Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:International Journal of Nephrology 2017-01, Vol.2017 (2017), p.1-5-006
Main Authors: Haniff, Jamaiyah, Bavanandan, Sunita, Ahmad, Ghazali, Kim Liong, Ang, Mohan, Kirubashni, Hashim, Nadiah Hanis, Adnan, Tassha Hilda, Bujang, Mohamad Adam, Bak Leong, Goh
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aging
Chronic illnesses
Diabetes
Funding
Hospitals
Hypertension
Kidney diseases
Medicare
Nephrology
Patients
Peritoneal dialysis
Population
Studies
Trends
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013. Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment in Malaysia until 2040. Methodology. Univariate forecasting models using the number of new and current dialysis patients, by the Malaysian Dialysis and Transplant Registry from 1993 to 2013 were used. Four forecasting models were evaluated, and the model with the smallest error was selected for the prediction. Result. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) modeling with the lowest error was selected to predict both the incidence (RMSE = 135.50, MAPE = 2.85, and MAE = 87.71) and the prevalence (RMSE = 158.79, MAPE = 1.29, and MAE = 117.21) of dialysis patients. The estimated incidences of new dialysis patients in 2020 and 2040 are 10,208 and 19,418 cases, respectively, while the estimated prevalence is 51,269 and 106,249 cases. Conclusion. The growth of ESRD patients on dialysis in Malaysia can be expected to continue at an alarming rate. Effective steps to address and curb further increase in new patients requiring dialysis are urgently needed, in order to mitigate the expected financial and health catastrophes associated with the projected increase of such patients.
ISSN:2090-2158
2090-214X
2090-2158
DOI:10.1155/2017/2735296