Climate Change Affects the Utilization of Light and Heat Resources in Paddy Field on the Songnen Plain, China

• Published in: Agriculture (Basel) 2022-10, Vol.12 (10), p.1648
• Main Authors: Zheng, Ennan, Qin, Mengting, Chen, Peng, Xu, Tianyu, Zhang, Zhongxue
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Analysis; Cereal crops; CERES-rice model; Climate change; Climatic conditions; Crop production; Crop yield; Crop yields; Crops; Decision support systems; Efficiency; Emissions; Fertilizers; Food security; Food supply; GCMs; Global climate models; Global temperature changes; Greenhouse effect; Growth models; Heat; Irrigation; Land surveys; Light; light and heat resource utilization; Phenology; Precipitation; Radiation; Resource utilization; Rice; rice yield; Security management; Weather
• ISSN: 2077-0472; 2077-0472
• DOI: 10.3390/agriculture12101648

Efficient utilization of light and heat resources is an important part of cleaner production. However, exploring the changes in light and heat resources utilization potential in paddy under future climate change is essential to make full use of the potential of rice varieties and ensure high-efficient, high-yield, and high-quality rice production, which has been seldom conducted. In our study, a process-based crop model (CERES-Rice) was calibrated and validated based on experiment data from the Songnen Plain of China, and then driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) from the coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP6) to predict rice growth period, yield, and light and heat resources utilization efficiency under future climate change conditions. The results indicated that the rice growth period would be shortened, especially in the high emission scenario (SSP585), while rice yield would increase slightly under the low and medium emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP245), it decreased significantly under the high emission scenario (SSP585) in the long term (the 2080s) relative to the baseline of 2000–2019. The light and temperature resources utilization (ERT), light utilization efficiency (ER), and heat utilization efficiency (HUE) were selected as the light and heat resources utilization evaluation indexes. Compared with the base period, the mean ERT in the 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s were −6.46%, −6.01%, and −6.03% under SSP126, respectively. Under SSP245, the mean ERT were −7.89%, −8.41%, and −8.27%, respectively. Under SSP585, the mean ERT were −6.88%, −13.69%, and −28.84%, respectively. The ER would increase slightly, except for the 2080s under the high emission scenario. Moreover, the HUE would reduce as compared with the base period. The results of the analysis showed that the most significant meteorological factor affecting rice growth was temperature. Furthermore, under future climate conditions, optimizing the sowing date could make full use of climate resources to improve rice yield and light and heat resource utilization indexes, which is of great significance for agricultural cleaner production in the future.