Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2022-03, Vol.12 (1), p.3910-3910, Article 3910
Main Authors: Gao, Shan, Zeng, Zan, Wang, HaoNing, Chen, FangYuan, Huang, LiYa, Wang, XiaoLong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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African horse sickness
African Horse Sickness - epidemiology
African Horse Sickness Virus
Animals
Border stations
Ceratopogonidae
China - epidemiology
Climate
Climate change
Culicoides
Ecosystem
Entropy
Epidemics
Habitats
Horses
Humanities and Social Sciences
Infectious diseases
Insect Vectors
Maximum entropy
multidisciplinary
National security
Risk analysis
Risk Assessment
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Spatial analysis
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Summary:African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides . The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-07512-w