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Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm
We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep behaviour di...
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| Published in: | NPJ Parkinson's Disease 2021-04, Vol.7 (1), p.33-33, Article 33 |
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| container_title | NPJ Parkinson's Disease |
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| creator | Bestwick, Jonathan P. Auger, Stephen D. Simonet, Cristina Rees, Richard N. Rack, Daniel Jitlal, Mark Giovannoni, Gavin Lees, Andrew J. Cuzick, Jack Schrag, Anette E. Noyce, Alastair J. |
| description | We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) as “intermediate” markers of prodromal PD in the absence of sufficient incident cases. We have now developed and tested an enhanced algorithm which incorporates the intermediate markers into the risk model. Risk estimates were compared using the enhanced and the basic algorithm in members of the PREDICT-PD pilot cohort. The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm yielded a much greater range of risk estimates than the basic algorithm (93–609-fold difference between the 10th and 90th centiles vs 10–13-fold respectively). There was a greater increase in the risk of PD with increasing risk scores for the enhanced algorithm than for the basic algorithm (hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase in log risk of 2.75 [95% CI 1.68–4.50;
p
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| doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41531-021-00176-9 |
| format | article |
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p
< 0.001] versus 1.47 [95% CI 0.86–2.51;
p
= 0.16] respectively). Estimates from the enhanced algorithm also correlated more closely with subclinical striatal DaT-SPECT dopamine depletion (
R
2
= 0.164,
p
= 0.005 vs
R
2
= 0.043,
p
= 0.17). Incorporating the previous intermediate markers of prodromal PD and using likelihood ratios improved the accuracy of the PREDICT-PD prediction algorithm.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2373-8057</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2373-8057</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1038/s41531-021-00176-9</identifier><identifier>PMID: 33795693</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>London: Nature Publishing Group UK</publisher><subject>692/499 ; 692/53/2423 ; Algorithms ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Biomedicine ; Neurology ; Neurosciences ; Olfaction disorders ; Parkinson's disease ; REM sleep</subject><ispartof>NPJ Parkinson's Disease, 2021-04, Vol.7 (1), p.33-33, Article 33</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2021</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-c91a63c9bb58dec02e539ddfa24a05eaafc44de6c0741ab2a92f401f87a17f663</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-c91a63c9bb58dec02e539ddfa24a05eaafc44de6c0741ab2a92f401f87a17f663</cites><orcidid>0000-0003-3027-5497 ; 0000-0002-3088-8616 ; 0000-0002-9872-6680 ; 0000-0002-2476-4385</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2507806842/fulltextPDF?pq-origsite=primo$$EPDF$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2507806842?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,727,780,784,885,25753,27924,27925,37012,37013,44590,53791,53793,75126</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33795693$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Bestwick, Jonathan P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Auger, Stephen D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Simonet, Cristina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rees, Richard N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rack, Daniel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jitlal, Mark</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Giovannoni, Gavin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lees, Andrew J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cuzick, Jack</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schrag, Anette E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Noyce, Alastair J.</creatorcontrib><title>Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm</title><title>NPJ Parkinson's Disease</title><addtitle>npj Parkinsons Dis</addtitle><addtitle>NPJ Parkinsons Dis</addtitle><description>We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) as “intermediate” markers of prodromal PD in the absence of sufficient incident cases. We have now developed and tested an enhanced algorithm which incorporates the intermediate markers into the risk model. Risk estimates were compared using the enhanced and the basic algorithm in members of the PREDICT-PD pilot cohort. The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm yielded a much greater range of risk estimates than the basic algorithm (93–609-fold difference between the 10th and 90th centiles vs 10–13-fold respectively). There was a greater increase in the risk of PD with increasing risk scores for the enhanced algorithm than for the basic algorithm (hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase in log risk of 2.75 [95% CI 1.68–4.50;
p
< 0.001] versus 1.47 [95% CI 0.86–2.51;
p
= 0.16] respectively). Estimates from the enhanced algorithm also correlated more closely with subclinical striatal DaT-SPECT dopamine depletion (
R
2
= 0.164,
p
= 0.005 vs
R
2
= 0.043,
p
= 0.17). Incorporating the previous intermediate markers of prodromal PD and using likelihood ratios improved the accuracy of the PREDICT-PD prediction algorithm.</description><subject>692/499</subject><subject>692/53/2423</subject><subject>Algorithms</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Biomedicine</subject><subject>Neurology</subject><subject>Neurosciences</subject><subject>Olfaction disorders</subject><subject>Parkinson's disease</subject><subject>REM sleep</subject><issn>2373-8057</issn><issn>2373-8057</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>PIMPY</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp9ks1u1DAQgCMEolXpC3BAkbhwCYz_4wsS2hZYqRIrVLhajuNkvU3sxc5W6q0PwYXX65PgbUppOXCwbHk-f_aMpyheIniLgNTvEkWMoApwHoAEr-ST4hATQaoamHj6YH1QHKe0gUxRXksGz4sDQoRkXJLD4vty3MZw6Xxf2jS5UU8u-DJ05UrHC-dT8DfXv1LZumR1smV06eLm-ue0tqX1a-2NbcvV19OT5eK8Wp2UeuhDdNN6fFE86_SQ7PHdfFR8-3h6vvhcnX35tFx8OKsMozBVRiLNiZFNw-rWGsCWEdm2ncZUA7Nad4bS1nIDgiLdYC1xRwF1tdBIdJyTo2I5e9ugN2obcwLxSgXt1O1GiL3ScXJmsIoZ0UiNAGraUOC4ERhbaVopJeKSk-x6P7u2u2a0rbF-inp4JH0c8W6t-nCp6lx_AJYFb-4EMfzY5XKq0SVjh0F7G3ZJYQY1E1wImdHX_6CbsIs-l2pPiRp4TXGm8EyZGFKKtrt_DAK17wI1d4HKXaBuu0Dt1a8epnF_5M-fZ4DMQMoh39v49-7_aH8DRme-sQ</recordid><startdate>20210401</startdate><enddate>20210401</enddate><creator>Bestwick, Jonathan P.</creator><creator>Auger, Stephen D.</creator><creator>Simonet, Cristina</creator><creator>Rees, Richard N.</creator><creator>Rack, Daniel</creator><creator>Jitlal, Mark</creator><creator>Giovannoni, Gavin</creator><creator>Lees, Andrew J.</creator><creator>Cuzick, Jack</creator><creator>Schrag, Anette E.</creator><creator>Noyce, Alastair J.</creator><general>Nature Publishing Group UK</general><general>Nature Publishing Group</general><general>Nature Portfolio</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>5PM</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3027-5497</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3088-8616</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9872-6680</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2476-4385</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20210401</creationdate><title>Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm</title><author>Bestwick, Jonathan P. ; Auger, Stephen D. ; Simonet, Cristina ; Rees, Richard N. ; Rack, Daniel ; Jitlal, Mark ; Giovannoni, Gavin ; Lees, Andrew J. ; Cuzick, Jack ; Schrag, Anette E. ; Noyce, Alastair J.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c540t-c91a63c9bb58dec02e539ddfa24a05eaafc44de6c0741ab2a92f401f87a17f663</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>692/499</topic><topic>692/53/2423</topic><topic>Algorithms</topic><topic>Biomedical and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Biomedicine</topic><topic>Neurology</topic><topic>Neurosciences</topic><topic>Olfaction disorders</topic><topic>Parkinson's disease</topic><topic>REM sleep</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Bestwick, Jonathan P.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Auger, Stephen D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Simonet, Cristina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rees, Richard N.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rack, Daniel</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Jitlal, Mark</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Giovannoni, Gavin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lees, Andrew J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cuzick, Jack</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schrag, Anette E.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Noyce, Alastair J.</creatorcontrib><collection>Springer Nature OA Free Journals</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><collection>PubMed Central (Full Participant titles)</collection><collection>DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>NPJ Parkinson's Disease</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Bestwick, Jonathan P.</au><au>Auger, Stephen D.</au><au>Simonet, Cristina</au><au>Rees, Richard N.</au><au>Rack, Daniel</au><au>Jitlal, Mark</au><au>Giovannoni, Gavin</au><au>Lees, Andrew J.</au><au>Cuzick, Jack</au><au>Schrag, Anette E.</au><au>Noyce, Alastair J.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm</atitle><jtitle>NPJ Parkinson's Disease</jtitle><stitle>npj Parkinsons Dis</stitle><addtitle>NPJ Parkinsons Dis</addtitle><date>2021-04-01</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>7</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>33</spage><epage>33</epage><pages>33-33</pages><artnum>33</artnum><issn>2373-8057</issn><eissn>2373-8057</eissn><abstract>We previously reported a basic algorithm to identify the risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) using published data on risk factors and prodromal features. Using this algorithm, the PREDICT-PD study identified individuals at increased risk of PD and used tapping speed, hyposmia and REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) as “intermediate” markers of prodromal PD in the absence of sufficient incident cases. We have now developed and tested an enhanced algorithm which incorporates the intermediate markers into the risk model. Risk estimates were compared using the enhanced and the basic algorithm in members of the PREDICT-PD pilot cohort. The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm yielded a much greater range of risk estimates than the basic algorithm (93–609-fold difference between the 10th and 90th centiles vs 10–13-fold respectively). There was a greater increase in the risk of PD with increasing risk scores for the enhanced algorithm than for the basic algorithm (hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase in log risk of 2.75 [95% CI 1.68–4.50;
p
< 0.001] versus 1.47 [95% CI 0.86–2.51;
p
= 0.16] respectively). Estimates from the enhanced algorithm also correlated more closely with subclinical striatal DaT-SPECT dopamine depletion (
R
2
= 0.164,
p
= 0.005 vs
R
2
= 0.043,
p
= 0.17). Incorporating the previous intermediate markers of prodromal PD and using likelihood ratios improved the accuracy of the PREDICT-PD prediction algorithm.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>33795693</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41531-021-00176-9</doi><tpages>1</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3027-5497</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3088-8616</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9872-6680</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2476-4385</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | 692/499 692/53/2423 Algorithms Biomedical and Life Sciences Biomedicine Neurology Neurosciences Olfaction disorders Parkinson's disease REM sleep |
| title | Improving estimation of Parkinson’s disease risk—the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm |
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