Modelling Shifts and Contraction of Seed Zones in Two Mexican Pine Species by Using Molecular Markers

A seed zone or provenance region is an area within which plants can be moved with little risk of maladaptation because of the low environmental variation. Delineation of seed zones is of great importance for commercial plantations and reforestation and restoration programs. In this study, we used AF...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Forests 2021-05, Vol.12 (5), p.570
Main Authors: Simental-Rodriguez, Sergio Leonel, Pérez-Luna, Alberto, Hernández-Díaz, José Ciro, Jaramillo-Correa, Juan Pablo, López-Sánchez, Carlos A., Flores-Rentería, Lluvia, Carrillo-Parra, Artemio, Wehenkel, Christian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Amplified fragment length polymorphism
Climate
Climate prediction
Climatic conditions
Contraction
gene-environment associations
locus
Markers
Nitrates
Outliers (statistics)
Phosphorus
Pinus arizonica
Pinus durangensis
Plantations
Precipitation
RDA
Reforestation
Seeds
Soils
Species
Trees
waikato environment for knowledge analysis
WorldClim
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Summary:A seed zone or provenance region is an area within which plants can be moved with little risk of maladaptation because of the low environmental variation. Delineation of seed zones is of great importance for commercial plantations and reforestation and restoration programs. In this study, we used AFLP markers associated with environmental variation for locating and delimiting seed zones for two widespread and economically important Mexican pine species (Pinus arizonica Engelm. and P. durangensis Martínez), both based on recent climate conditions and under a predicted climate scenario for 2030 (Representative Concentration Pathway of ~4.5 Wm−2). We expected to observe: (i) associations between seed zones and local climate, soil and geographical factors, and (ii) a meaning latitudinal shift of seed zones, along with a contraction of species distributions for the period 1990–2030 in a northward direction. Some AFLP outliers were significantly associated with spring and winter precipitation, and with phosphorus concentration in the soil. According to the scenario for 2030, the estimated species and seed zone distributions will change both in size and position. Our modeling of seed zones could contribute to reducing the probabilities of maladaptation of future reforestations and plantations with the pine species studied.
ISSN:1999-4907
1999-4907
DOI:10.3390/f12050570