Travel distance, frequency of return, and the spread of disease

Human mobility is a key driver of infectious disease spread. Recent literature has uncovered a clear pattern underlying the complexity of human mobility in cities: r · f , the product of distance traveled r and frequency of return f per user to a given location, is invariant across space. This paper...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2023-08, Vol.13 (1), p.14064-10, Article 14064
Main Authors: Heine, Cate, O’Keeffe, Kevin P., Santi, Paolo, Yan, Li, Ratti, Carlo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158/1144
631/158/2463
Cities
COVID-19
Datasets
Disease spread
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Infectious diseases
Mobility
Movement
multidisciplinary
Policy
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Simulation
Travel
Velocity
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Summary:Human mobility is a key driver of infectious disease spread. Recent literature has uncovered a clear pattern underlying the complexity of human mobility in cities: r · f , the product of distance traveled r and frequency of return f per user to a given location, is invariant across space. This paper asks whether the invariant r · f also serves as a driver for epidemic spread, so that the risk associated with human movement can be modeled by a unifying variable r · f . We use two large-scale datasets of individual human mobility to show that there is in fact a simple relation between r and f and both speed and spatial dispersion of disease spread. This discovery could assist in modeling spread of disease and inform travel policies in future epidemics—based not only on travel distance r but also on frequency of return f .
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-38840-0