Analyzing and Forecasting Electrical Load Consumption in Healthcare Buildings

• Published in: Energies (Basel) 2018-03, Vol.11 (3), p.493
• Main Authors: Gordillo-Orquera , Rodolfo, Lopez-Ramos, Luis, Muñoz-Romero, Sergio, Iglesias-Casarrubios, Paz , Arcos-Avilés, Diego, Marques, Antonio, Rojo-Álvarez, José
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Autoregressive models; Autoregressive processes; Buildings; Data processing; Dynamic models; electrical load forecasting; Electrical loads; ensemble; Error analysis; Forecasting; Health care; healthcare buildings; orthonormal partial least squares; power consumption; Primary care; principal component analysis; Principal components analysis; Subspaces; unsupervised processing
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en11030493

Healthcare buildings exhibit a different electrical load predictability depending on their size and nature. Large hospitals behave similarly to small cities, whereas primary care centers are expected to have different consumption dynamics. In this work, we jointly analyze the electrical load predictability of a large hospital and that of its associated primary care center. An unsupervised load forecasting scheme using combined classic methods of principal component analysis (PCA) and autoregressive (AR) modeling, as well as a supervised scheme using orthonormal partial least squares (OPLS), are proposed. Both methods reduce the dimensionality of the data to create an efficient and low-complexity data representation and eliminate noise subspaces. Because the former method tended to underestimate the load and the latter tended to overestimate it in the large hospital, we also propose a convex combination of both to further reduce the forecasting error. The analysis of data from 7 years in the hospital and 3 years in the primary care center shows that the proposed low-complexity dynamic models are flexible enough to predict both types of consumption at practical accuracy levels.