Age-differentiated incentives for adaptive behavior during epidemics produce oscillatory and chaotic dynamics

Heterogeneity in contact patterns, mortality rates, and transmissibility among and between different age classes can have significant effects on epidemic outcomes. Adaptive behavior in response to the spread of an infectious pathogen may give rise to complex epidemiological dynamics. Here we model a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS computational biology 2023-09, Vol.19 (9), p.e1011217
Main Authors: Arthur, Ronan F, Levin, May, Labrogere, Alexandre, Feldman, Marcus W
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Analysis
Aversion
Behavior
Biology and Life Sciences
Communicable diseases
Complexity
Computer and Information Sciences
COVID-19
Decision-making
Diseases
Dynamics
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Health risks
Heterogeneity
Human acts
Human behavior
Incentives
Infectious diseases
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
Mortality
Pathogens
People and Places
Physical Sciences
United States
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Summary:Heterogeneity in contact patterns, mortality rates, and transmissibility among and between different age classes can have significant effects on epidemic outcomes. Adaptive behavior in response to the spread of an infectious pathogen may give rise to complex epidemiological dynamics. Here we model an infectious disease in which adaptive behavior incentives, and mortality rates, can vary between two and three age classes. The model indicates that age-dependent variability in infection aversion can produce more complex epidemic dynamics at lower levels of pathogen transmissibility and that those at less risk of infection can still drive complexity in the dynamics of those at higher risk of infection. Policymakers should consider the interdependence of such heterogeneous groups when making decisions.
ISSN:1553-7358
1553-734X
1553-7358
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011217