Recent advances on the estimation of the thermal reaction norm for sex ratios

Temperature-dependent sex determination, or TSD, is a widespread phenomenon in reptiles. The shape of the relationship between constant incubation temperature and sex ratio defines the TSD pattern. The TSD pattern is considered a life-history parameter important for conservation because the wider th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PeerJ (San Francisco, CA) CA), 2020-03, Vol.8, p.e8451-e8451, Article e8451
Main Authors: Abreu-Grobois, F Alberto, Morales-Mérida, B Alejandra, Hart, Catherine E, Guillon, Jean-Michel, Godfrey, Matthew H, Navarro, Erik, Girondot, Marc
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Biodiversity and Ecology
Caretta caretta
Chelonia mydas
Chelydra serpentina
Climate change
Dermochelys coriacea
Ecology
Eggs
Embryos
Environmental Sciences
Evolutionary Studies
Global temperature changes
Incubation
Lepidochelys olivacea
Life history
Males
Marine turtles
Markov chains
Markov processes
Reaction norm
Reptiles
Sea turtles
Sex determination
Sex determination (Diagnosis)
Sex ratio
Sexes
Statistics
Temperature
Temperature-dependent sex determination
TSD
Turtles
Zoology
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Summary:Temperature-dependent sex determination, or TSD, is a widespread phenomenon in reptiles. The shape of the relationship between constant incubation temperature and sex ratio defines the TSD pattern. The TSD pattern is considered a life-history parameter important for conservation because the wider the range of temperatures producing both sexes, the more resilient the species is to climate change impacts. We review the different published equations and methodologies that have been used to model TSD patterns. We describe a new flexible model that allows for an asymmetrical pattern around the pivotal temperature, which is the constant temperature producing both sexes in equal proportions. We show that Metropolis-Hastings with Markov chain produced by a Monte Carlo process has many advantages compared to maximum likelihood and is preferred. Finally, we apply the models to results from incubation experiments using eggs from the marine turtle originating in Northeast Indian, East Pacific, and West Atlantic Regional Management Units (RMUs) and find large differences in pivotal temperatures but not in transitional ranges of temperatures.
ISSN:2167-8359
2167-8359
DOI:10.7717/peerj.8451