Development of accident prediction models for pedestrian crossings

In large Polish cities like Warsaw, pedestrians constitute almost 60% of road fatalities. Although traffic safety situation in general is improving, the numbers of pedestrians hit when crossing a road have not significantly decreased over the last six years. A negative binomial model was estimated f...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:MATEC web of conferences 2018-01, Vol.231, p.3002
Main Authors: Olszewski, Piotr, Osińska, Beata, Szagała, Piotr, Włodarek, Paweł
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accident data
Accident prediction
Fatalities
Heavy vehicles
Land use
Pedestrian crossings
Pedestrian safety
Pedestrians
Prediction models
Risk analysis
Traffic accidents & safety
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:In large Polish cities like Warsaw, pedestrians constitute almost 60% of road fatalities. Although traffic safety situation in general is improving, the numbers of pedestrians hit when crossing a road have not significantly decreased over the last six years. A negative binomial model was estimated for predicting accidents at unsignalised pedestrian crossings based on accident data from 52 crossings in Warsaw. A total of 58 pedestrian accidents were recorded at these crossings during the last seven years. The model shows that the number of accidents is less-than-proportional to both pedestrian and motorised traffic daily volumes. Other risk factors affecting pedestrian safety are: higher proportion of heavy vehicles and location in a mixed land use area. The model can be used with the Empirical Bayes method for an unbiased identification of high risk locations.
ISSN:2261-236X
2274-7214
2261-236X
DOI:10.1051/matecconf/201823103002