Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

• Published in: Nature communications 2018-02, Vol.9 (1), p.406-12, Article 406
• Main Authors: Sofiev, Mikhail, Winebrake, James J., Johansson, Lasse, Carr, Edward W., Prank, Marje, Soares, Joana, Vira, Julius, Kouznetsov, Rostislav, Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka, Corbett, James J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 119/118; 704/106/35/824; 704/106/694/682; 704/844/2739/2807; Aerosols - analysis; Air Pollutants - analysis; Air pollution; Anthropogenic factors; Asthma; Asthma - diagnosis; Asthma - economics; Asthma - etiology; Asthma - prevention & control; Atmospheric models; Cardiovascular Diseases - diagnosis; Cardiovascular Diseases - economics; Cardiovascular Diseases - etiology; Cardiovascular Diseases - prevention & control; Children; Climate; Emission inventories; Environmental impact; Fatalities; Forecasting; Fossil Fuels - adverse effects; Fossil Fuels - analysis; Fossil Fuels - supply & distribution; Fuels; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Health risks; Human influences; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Lung cancer; Lung Neoplasms - diagnosis; Lung Neoplasms - economics; Lung Neoplasms - etiology; Lung Neoplasms - prevention & control; Models, Statistical; Morbidity; multidisciplinary; Outdoor air quality; Particulate matter; Particulate Matter - analysis; Pollution; Public health; Public Health - trends; Reduction; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Shipping; Ships; Ships - ethics; Sulfur
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM 2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM 2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution. Aerosol pollution from shipping contributes to cooling but also leads to premature mortality and morbidity. Here the authors combine emission inventories, atmospheric models and health risk functions to show how cleaner marine fuels will reduce premature deaths and childhood asthma but results in larger warming.