Human disturbance is the major driver of vegetation changes in the Caatinga dry forest region

Drastic changes in vegetation structure caused by exceeding ecological thresholds have fueled the interest in tropical forest responses to climate and land-use changes. Here, we examine the potential successional trajectories experienced by the largest dry tropical forest region in South America, dr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2023-10, Vol.13 (1), p.18440-18440, Article 18440
Main Authors: Araujo, Helder F. P., Canassa, Nathália F., Machado, Célia C. C., Tabarelli, Marcelo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/158/852
704/106/694/2739
704/172/4081
Climate change
Climatic conditions
Distribution patterns
Dry forests
Forest degradation
Forests
Human impact
Humanities and Social Sciences
Land degradation
Land use
multidisciplinary
Natural vegetation
Precipitation
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Tropical forests
Vegetation
Vegetation changes
Vegetation cover
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Summary:Drastic changes in vegetation structure caused by exceeding ecological thresholds have fueled the interest in tropical forest responses to climate and land-use changes. Here, we examine the potential successional trajectories experienced by the largest dry tropical forest region in South America, driven by climate conditions and human disturbance. We built potential distribution models for vertebrate taxa associated with forest or shrub habitats to estimate natural vegetation cover. Distribution patterns were compared to current vegetation across the entire region to identify distinct forest degradation levels. Our results indicate the region has climatic and soil conditions suitable for more forest cover than is currently found, even in some areas with limited precipitation. However, 11.04% of natural cover persists across such an immense region, with only 4.34% consisting of forest cover. Forest degradation is characterized by the dramatic expansion of shrubland (390%), farming, and non-vegetation cover due to changes in land-use, rather than climatic conditions. Although different climate conditions have been the principal drivers for natural forest distribution in the region, the forest seems unable to resist the consequences of land-use changes, particularly in lower precipitation areas. Therefore, land-use change has exceeded the ecological thresholds for the persistence of forests, while climate change may exacerbate vegetation-type transitions.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-45571-9