The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:BMC public health 2021-01, Vol.21 (1), p.129-129, Article 129
Main Authors: Adebowale, Ayo Stephen, Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi F, Akinyemi, Joshua O, Obisesan, Olalekan K, Awosanya, Emmanuel J, Afolabi, Rotimi F, Alarape, Selim A, Obabiyi, Sunday O
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Africa - epidemiology
Asia - epidemiology
Bangladesh
Cameroon
Contingency
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - mortality
COVID-19 diagnostic tests
Cross-Sectional Studies
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Egypt
Epidemics
Epidemiologic Methods
Ghana
Growth rate
Humans
Incidence
Indonesia
Infectious diseases
Mexico - epidemiology
Model fit
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Nigeria
Nigeria - epidemiology
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Pandemics - statistics & numerical data
Polynomials
Population
Public health
Regression analysis
SARS-CoV-2
Situation assessment
South Africa
Statistics
Websites
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Summary:COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R =0.728, p
ISSN:1471-2458
1471-2458
DOI:10.1186/s12889-020-10149-x