Global recessions and booms: what do Probit models tell us?

We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that esp...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Quantitative finance and economics 2019-01, Vol.3 (1), p.187-200
Main Authors: Baumann, Ursel, Gómez Salvador, Ramón, Seitz, Franz
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Global GDP| Probit| turning points
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Summary:We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that especially activity-driven variables are important indicators for the turning points. Moreover, we identify similarities and differences between the different regions in this respect.
ISSN:2573-0134
2573-0134
DOI:10.3934/QFE.2019.1.187