Can we predict early 7-day readmissions using a standard 30-day hospital readmission risk prediction model?

• Published in: BMC medical informatics and decision making 2020-09, Vol.20 (1), p.227-227, Article 227
• Main Authors: Saleh, Sameh N, Makam, Anil N, Halm, Ethan A, Nguyen, Oanh Kieu
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aged; Ambulatory care facilities; Calibration; Care transitions; Comparative analysis; Discharge; Early readmissions; Female; Fines & penalties; Forecasting; Health informatics; Healthcare quality improvement; Hospital medicine; Hospital utilization; Hospitalization; Hospitals; Humans; Male; Mathematical models; Medical care quality; Middle Aged; Patient Readmission; Patients; Prediction models; Predictive model; Quality control; Quality improvement; Reference Standards; Retrospective Studies; Risk analysis; Risk Factors; Texas; United States
• ISSN: 1472-6947; 1472-6947
• DOI: 10.1186/s12911-020-01248-1

Despite focus on preventing 30-day readmissions, early readmissions (within 7 days of discharge) may be more preventable than later readmissions (8-30 days). We assessed how well a previously validated 30-day EHR-based readmission prediction model predicts 7-day readmissions and compared differences in strength of predictors. We conducted an observational study on adult hospitalizations from 6 diverse hospitals in North Texas using a 50-50 split-sample derivation and validation approach. We re-derived model coefficients for the same predictors as in the original 30-day model to optimize prediction of 7-day readmissions. We then compared the discrimination and calibration of the 7-day model to the 30-day model to assess model performance. To examine the changes in the point estimates between the two models, we evaluated the percent changes in coefficients. Of 32,922 index hospitalizations among unique patients, 4.4% had a 7-day admission and 12.7% had a 30-day readmission. Our original 30-day model had modestly lower discrimination for predicting 7-day vs. any 30-day readmission (C-statistic of 0.66 vs. 0.69, p ≤ 0.001). Our re-derived 7-day model had similar discrimination (C-statistic of 0.66, p = 0.38), but improved calibration. For the re-derived 7-day model, discharge day factors were more predictive of early readmissions, while baseline characteristics were less predictive. A previously validated 30-day readmission model can also be used as a stopgap to predict 7-day readmissions as model performance did not substantially change. However, strength of predictors differed between the 7-day and 30-day model; characteristics at discharge were more predictive of 7-day readmissions, while baseline characteristics were less predictive. Improvements in predicting early 7-day readmissions will likely require new risk factors proximal to day of discharge.