VACAS GORDAS Y VACAS FLACAS: LA POLÍTICA FISCAL Y EL BALANCE ESTRUCTURAL EN MÉXICO, 1990–2009

• Published in: Estudios económicos de el Colegio de México 2010-07, Vol.25 (2 (50)), p.309-336
• Main Authors: del Campo, Juan Carlos Chávez Martín, Vargas, Ricardo Rodríguez, de Jesús Fonseca Hernández, Felipe
• Format: Article
• Language: eng ; spa
• Subjects: Business cycles; Fiscal policy; Petroleum
• ISSN: 0186-7202; 0188-6916; 0186-7202
• DOI: 10.24201/ee.v25i2.111

Se estima el cálculo del balance estructural del sector público (BESP) para la economía mexicana de 1990 a 2009. Los resultados indican que, a pesar de que la política fiscal muestra un carácter procíclico durante la mayor parte del periodo estudiado, en el periodo reciente la política fiscal muestra un carácter netamente contracíclico, aunque menor al que indica el balance tradicional. Asimismo, se simula el efecto que hubiera tenido el haber adoptado una regla fiscal sobre el BESP y el balance tradicional durante el periodo de estudio. This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990–2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been counter-cyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.