Unaddressed non-energy use in the chemical industry can undermine fossil fuels phase-out

Around 13% of fossil fuels globally are used for non-combustion purposes. Fossil fuel processing plants, such as petroleum refineries, exhibit interdependent material and energy system dynamics, making the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems more challenging without addressing the no...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2024-09, Vol.15 (1), p.8050-10, Article 8050
Main Authors: Zanon-Zotin, Marianne, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Draeger, Rebecca, Rochedo, Pedro R. R., Szklo, Alexandre, Schaeffer, Roberto
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/694/682
706/4066/4080
706/703/253
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Bioplastics
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Carbon sequestration
Carbon sources
Chemical industry
Energy
Energy consumption
Fossil fuels
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Petroleum refining
Raw materials
Refineries
Refining
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
System dynamics
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Summary:Around 13% of fossil fuels globally are used for non-combustion purposes. Fossil fuel processing plants, such as petroleum refineries, exhibit interdependent material and energy system dynamics, making the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems more challenging without addressing the non-energy outputs. This study explores the future role of fossil fuels for non-energy purposes in climate-stringent scenarios with restrictions on alternative feedstock availability, focusing on the primary chemicals sector. Using a global integrated assessment model with detailed refining and primary chemicals sectors, findings across various scenarios reveal that up to 62% of total feedstock use in the chemical sector could be provided by alternative sources by 2050. This would require significant scale-up in biomass utilisation and carbon capture technologies. Annual CO 2 emissions from the chemical sector could be reduced to as low as −1Gt CO 2 by the same year if carbon storage in non-recycled and non-incinerated bioplastics is accounted for. The chemical sector is both hard-to-abate and hard-to-defossilize. This study shows how limiting the availability of alternative carbon feedstocks impacts climate goals and efforts to phase out fossil fuels.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-52434-y