Predicting the risk of pipe failure using gradient boosted decision trees and weighted risk analysis

Pipe failure prediction models are essential for informing proactive management decisions. This study aims to establish a reliable prediction model returning the probability of pipe failure using a gradient boosted tree model, and a specific segmentation and grouping of pipes on a 1 km grid that ass...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:npj clean water 2022-06, Vol.5 (1), p.1-11, Article 22
Main Authors: Barton, Neal Andrew, Hallett, Stephen Henry, Jude, Simon Richard, Tran, Trung Hieu
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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Aquatic Pollution
Correlation coefficient
Correlation coefficients
Decision analysis
Decision trees
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
Failure analysis
Graphical representations
Management decisions
Nanotechnology
Pipes
Prediction models
Risk analysis
Risk assessment
Segmentation
Strategic management
Waste Water Technology
Water Industry/Water Technologies
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Water Quality/Water Pollution
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Summary:Pipe failure prediction models are essential for informing proactive management decisions. This study aims to establish a reliable prediction model returning the probability of pipe failure using a gradient boosted tree model, and a specific segmentation and grouping of pipes on a 1 km grid that associates localised characteristics. The model is applied to an extensive UK network with approximately 40,000 km of pipeline and a 14-year failure history. The model was evaluated using the Receiver Operator Curve and Area Under the Curve (0.89), briers score (0.007) and Mathews Correlation Coefficient (0.27) for accuracy, indicating acceptable predictions. A weighted risk analysis is used to identify the consequence of a pipe failure and provide a graphical representation of high-risk pipes for decision makers. The weighted risk analysis provided an important step to understanding the consequences of the predicted failure. The model can be used directly in strategic planning, which sets long-term key decisions regarding maintenance and potential replacement of pipes.
ISSN:2059-7037
2059-7037
DOI:10.1038/s41545-022-00165-2