Development of mortality prediction model in the elderly hospitalized AKI patients

Acute kidney injury (AKI) correlates with increased health-care costs and poor outcomes in older adults. However, there is no good scoring system to predict mortality within 30-day, 1-year after AKI in older adults. We performed a retrospective analysis screening data of 53,944 hospitalized elderly...

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Published in:Scientific reports 2021-07, Vol.11 (1), p.15157-15157, Article 15157
Main Authors: Peng, Jing-Cheng, Wu, Ting, Wu, Xi, Yan, Ping, Kang, Yi-Xin, Liu, Yu, Zhang, Ning-Ya, Liu, Qian, Wang, Hong-Shen, Deng, Ying-Hao, Wang, Mei, Luo, Xiao-Qin, Duan, Shao-Bin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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Death
Health care
Hospitalization
Humanities and Social Sciences
Kidney diseases
Kidneys
Mechanical ventilation
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Myocardial infarction
Older people
Prediction models
Proteinuria
Regression analysis
Risk factors
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Solid tumors
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Summary:Acute kidney injury (AKI) correlates with increased health-care costs and poor outcomes in older adults. However, there is no good scoring system to predict mortality within 30-day, 1-year after AKI in older adults. We performed a retrospective analysis screening data of 53,944 hospitalized elderly patients (age > 65 years) from multi-centers in China. 944 patients with AKI (acute kidney disease) were included and followed up for 1 year. Multivariable regression analysis was used for developing scoring models in the test group (a randomly 70% of all the patients). The established models have been verified in the validation group (a randomly 30% of all the patients). Model 1 that consisted of the risk factors for death within 30 days after AKI had accurate discrimination (The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, AUROC: 0.90 (95% CI 0.875–0.932)) in the test group, and performed well in the validation groups (AUROC: 0.907 (95% CI 0.865–0.949)). The scoring formula of all-cause death within 1 year (model 2) is a seven-variable model including AKI type, solid tumor, renal replacement therapy, acute myocardial infarction, mechanical ventilation, the number of organ failures, and proteinuria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of model 2 was > 0.80 both in the test and validation groups. Our newly established risk models can well predict the risk of all-cause death in older hospitalized AKI patients within 30 days or 1 year.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-94271-9