Prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients using classification and regression tree analysis

• Published in: Clinics (São Paulo, Brazil) Brazil), 2011-01, Vol.66 (1), p.119-124
• Main Authors: Hong, Wan-dong, Dong, Le-mei, Jiang, Zen-cai, Zhu, Qi-huai, Jin, Shu-Qing
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cirrhosis; Classification and regression tree analysis; Clinical Science; Decision Trees; Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal - methods; Esophageal and Gastric Varices - diagnosis; Esophageal varices; Female; Humans; Liver Cirrhosis - complications; Male; MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL; Middle Aged; Organ Size; Platelet Count; Portal Vein - pathology; Predictive Value of Tests; Predictor; Prognosis; Prothrombin Time - methods; Regression Analysis; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Factors; Spleen - pathology; Splenomegaly - complications; Statistics, Nonparametric; Tree model
• ISSN: 1807-5932; 1980-5322; 1980-5322
• DOI: 10.1590/S1807-59322011000100021

Recent guidelines recommend that all cirrhotic patients should undergo endoscopic screening for esophageal varices. That identifying cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices by noninvasive predictors would allow for the restriction of the performance of endoscopy to patients with a high risk of having varices. This study aimed to develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree analysis for the prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients. 309 cirrhotic patients (training sample, 187 patients; test sample 122 patients) were included. Within the training sample, the classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify predictors and prediction model of large esophageal varices. The prediction model was then further evaluated in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes. The prevalence of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients was 50.8%. A tree model that was consisted of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time was developed by classification and regression tree analysis achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 84% for prediction of large esophageal varices. When reconstructed into two groups, the rate of varices was 83.2% for high-risk group and 15.2% for low-risk group. Accuracy of the tree model was maintained in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes. A decision tree model that consists of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time may be useful for prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.