A Method to Elicit Beliefs as most Likely Intervals

We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a "most likely interval", a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Judgment and Decision Making 2015-09, Vol.10 (5), p.456-468
Main Authors: Schlag, Karl H., van der Weele, Joël J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Belief & doubt
Belief elicitation
Beliefs
Confidence intervals
confidence intervals.NAKeywords
Crude oil
Crude oil prices
Decision making
Economic theory
Economics
Energy economics
Expected utility
Experiments
Experts
Price levels
scoring rules
Studies
subjective probabilities
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Summary:We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a "most likely interval", a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how well the answer compares to the actual outcome. We show that the MLI performs well in economic experiments, and satisfies a number of desirable theoretical properties such as robustness to the risk preferences of the expert.
ISSN:1930-2975
1930-2975
DOI:10.1017/s1930297500005593