Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

• Published in: Nature communications 2016-04, Vol.7 (1), p.11382-11382, Article 11382
• Main Authors: Erb, Karl-Heinz, Lauk, Christian, Kastner, Thomas, Mayer, Andreas, Theurl, Michaela C., Haberl, Helmut
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 631/158/2451; 631/158/2454; Animal Husbandry - methods; Animal Husbandry - organization & administration; Animal Husbandry - trends; Biomass; Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data; Crop Production - methods; Crop Production - organization & administration; Crop Production - trends; Food Supply - methods; Food Supply - statistics & numerical data; Forecasting; Forests; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Models, Statistical; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary)
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11382

Safeguarding the world’s remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions. Safeguarding existing forests is an important ecological concern but constrains the expansion of farmland to feed the growing world population. Here the authors analyse the option space for future changes in agriculture and diets compatible with a no-deforestation goal.