Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100

A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO 2 in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite obs...

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Published in:Scientific reports 2024-05, Vol.14 (1), p.10359-10359, Article 10359
Main Authors: Sáez, Marina, Benavente, David, Cuezva, Soledad, Huc, Mireille, Fernández-Cortés, Ángel, Mialon, Arnaud, Kerr, Yann, Sánchez-Moral, Sergio, Mangiarotti, Sylvain
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/35/823
704/106/694/2739
704/106/694/2786
Carbon dioxide
Caves
Climate change
Environmental Sciences
Greenhouse gases
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Pigments
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Soil moisture
Soil temperature
Ventilation
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Summary:A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO 2 in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO 2 inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios. It is found that extreme levels of CO 2 were reached during the period 1950–1972 due to the massive affluence of visitors. It is demonstrated that it is possible to monitor the CO 2 in the cave in real time using satellite information as an external forcing. For the future, it is shown that the maximum values of CO 2 will exceed the levels reached during the 1980s and the 1990s when the CO 2 introduced by the touristic visits, although intentionally reduced, still enhanced considerably the micro corrosion of walls and pigments.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-60149-9