Identifying High-Risk Events for COVID-19 Transmission: Estimating the Risk of Clustering Using Nationwide Data

The transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is known to be overdispersed, meaning that only a fraction of infected cases contributes to super-spreading. While cluster interventions are an effective measure for controlling pandemics due to the viruses' overdi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Viruses 2023-02, Vol.15 (2), p.456
Main Authors: Ueda, Minami, Hayashi, Katsuma, Nishiura, Hiroshi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aged
Antigens
Cluster Analysis
Contact tracing
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 vaccines
Datasets
disease outbreak
Disease transmission
Distribution
Elder care
Epidemics
epidemiology
Hospitals
Humans
Infections
Infectious diseases
Japan
Japan - epidemiology
Medical research
Medicine, Experimental
Observational studies
observational study
Outdoor air quality
Pandemics
People with disabilities
Public health
risk assessment
Risk factors
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Statistics
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Summary:The transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is known to be overdispersed, meaning that only a fraction of infected cases contributes to super-spreading. While cluster interventions are an effective measure for controlling pandemics due to the viruses' overdispersed nature, a quantitative assessment of the risk of clustering has yet to be sufficiently presented. Using systematically collected cluster surveillance data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from June 2020 to June 2021 in Japan, we estimated the activity-dependent risk of clustering in 23 establishment types. The analysis indicated that elderly care facilities, welfare facilities for people with disabilities, and hospitals had the highest risk of clustering, with 4.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.43-4.87), 2.99 (2.59-3.46), and 2.00 (1.88-2.12) cluster reports per million event users, respectively. Risks in educational settings were higher overall among older age groups, potentially being affected by activities with close and uncontrollable contact during extracurricular hours. In dining settings, drinking and singing increased the risk by 10- to 70-fold compared with regular eating settings. The comprehensive analysis of the COVID-19 cluster records provides an additional scientific basis for the design of customized interventions.
ISSN:1999-4915
1999-4915
DOI:10.3390/v15020456