Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade −1 ) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade −1 ). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2016-11, Vol.7 (1), p.13676-13676, Article 13676
Main Authors: Knutson, Thomas R., Zhang, Rong, Horowitz, Larry W.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
20th century
21st century
704/106/694/1108
704/106/694/2786
704/106/694/674
Climate change
Cooling
Fluid dynamics
Global warming
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Temperature
Trends
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Summary:Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade −1 ) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade −1 ). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models’ warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/ncomms13676