Options for Colombia's mid-century deep decarbonization strategy

• Published in: Energy strategy reviews 2020-11, Vol.32, p.100525, Article 100525
• Main Authors: Delgado, Ricardo, Wild, Thomas B., Arguello, Ricardo, Clarke, Leon, Romero, German
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; Developing country; GCAM; Low carbon development; Mid-century strategy; Paris agreement
• ISSN: 2211-467X; 2211-467X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100525

The Paris agreement called on parties to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. This paper aims to contribute to the definition of Colombia's mid-century strategy. For this, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop three representative pathways toward deep decarbonization by mid-century. We explore what might happen under Colombia's current policy trajectory, and in the context of 30% and 90% reductions in CO2 emissions by mid-century. The scenarios are intended to provide insights into strategic issues at the heart of long-term climate policy planning. We find that current and announced policies do not lead to net-zero emissions and that decarbonization requires early and sustained efforts toward clean energy production. We also find that stopping deforestation and intensifying agriculture are key components in any effort to decarbonize and for improving livelihoods. The use of emerging technologies such as sustainable bio-based fuels, the electrification of the transport fleet and the massive deployment of carbon free power generation will play a crucial role in decarbonization. •An extension over time of current and announced Colombian policies is insufficient for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.Energy efficiency is important, but decarbonization is mainly reached by using cleaner energy.•In a deep decarbonization scenario, there is an increase in the production of agricultural products (including bioenergy).•International markets of oil and natural gas will still be active by 2050 with lower demands and highly uncertain prices.•The transportation energy mix needs to transition to second and third generation biofuels, electricity and hydrogen.