The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy: A time-series analysis

Many analyses demonstrate that rising unemployment rates generate a feeling of uncertainty that can influence fertility behaviour, inducing a short-term reduction in fertility. The authors wish to evaluate whether the recent changes in male and female unemployment are differently linked to fertility...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Demographic research 2016, Vol.34, p.1-38
Main Authors: Cazzola, Alberto, Pasquini, Lucia, Angeli, Aurora
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Birth plans
Demography
dynamic regression
Economic conditions
Economic depression
Economic models
Employment
Europe
Female fertility
Fertility
fertility behavior
Fertility rates
Gender
Geography
Hypotheses
Italy
Labor market
Labor markets
Labour market
Men
Research Article
Social aspects
structural breaks
Studies
Time series
Trends
Unemployment
Unemployment rates
Women
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Summary:Many analyses demonstrate that rising unemployment rates generate a feeling of uncertainty that can influence fertility behaviour, inducing a short-term reduction in fertility. The authors wish to evaluate whether the recent changes in male and female unemployment are differently linked to fertility in different geographic areas of Italy. They used the following official aggregate data for the period 1995-2012: unemployment quarterly rates from the Labour Force Surveys conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (Istat) and quarterly general fertility rates. They applied a monitoring approach for the identification of structural breaks inside both of the time series and used a dynamic regression to identify specific temporal links between unemployment and fertility. Both male and female unemployment rates are negatively associated with fertility in the northern and central regions of Italy. Unemployment rates seem to be good predictors of fertility in these regions, although male unemployment appears to further reduce fertility beyond the reduction predicted by female unemployment.
ISSN:1435-9871
2363-7064
1435-9871
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.1