A case study of outlier event on solar irradiance forecasts from the two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is directly effected by global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and has also large variations in spatial and/or temporal scales. For a safety control of an energy management system (EMS), a day-ahead forecast or several hour forecast of solar irradiance by a numerical w...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Renewable energy and environmental sustainability 2016, Vol.1, p.37
Main Authors: Ohtake, Hideaki, Takashima, Takumi, Oozeki, Takashi, da Silva Fonseca, Joao Gari, Yamada, Yoshinori
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Case studies
Cold
Electric power
Energy management
Error analysis
Irradiance
Mathematical models
Numerical prediction
Numerical weather forecasting
Photovoltaic cells
Photovoltaics
Prediction models
Reserve capacity
Thermal power
Time series
Weather
Weather forecasting
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Summary:Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is directly effected by global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and has also large variations in spatial and/or temporal scales. For a safety control of an energy management system (EMS), a day-ahead forecast or several hour forecast of solar irradiance by a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) becomes important for a control of reserve capacity (thermal power generation, etc.). In particular, a large forecast error of PV power and/or GHI forecasts has to be prevented in the EMS. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions. First one is a mesoscale model with horizontal grid spacing of 5 km and second one is a local forecast model with that of 2 km. The two NWPs have been used as an operational model in JMA. In this study, GHI forecasts obtained from the two models are validated and conducted a case study for large forecast error (outlier events) case of GHI.
ISSN:2493-9439
2493-9439
DOI:10.1051/rees/2016049