BUSINESS CYCLE, ASYMMETRIES AND NON-LINEARITY: THE BOLIVIAN CASE

In this paper, we deal with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. To achieve this, the approach is based on the combination of deviations...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economics & sociology 2020-01, Vol.13 (2), p.26-42
Main Authors: Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro, Núñez Ramírez, Marco Alberto, Valdez del Ríoe, Sacnicté
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asymmetry
Bolivia
business cycle
Business cycles
Business Economy / Management
Econometrics
Economic conditions
Economic growth
GNP
Gross National Product
International relations/trade
Markovs’ chains
natural rate of growth
Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
Recessions
Trends
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Summary:In this paper, we deal with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. To achieve this, the approach is based on the combination of deviations on the level of trends (alternative filters) with the algorithm of Harding and Pagan (2002). At the same time, effective rates of economic growth by Markov’s chains was considered in order to identify non-linear regimes of expansion and economic contraction. Finally, quantifications on the natural rate of growth for Bolivia are offered under a sustained expansion regime from 1950 to 2015. The results suggest that due to asymmetries and the manner in which the business cycle is measured, we observe longer duration of a business cycle when it was measured from busts rather than from booms.
ISSN:2071-789X
2306-3459
DOI:10.14254/2071-789X.2020/13-2/2