Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, is a growing threat in Brazil, where over 640,000 cases have been reported since 2017. However, there are often long delays between diagnoses of chikungunya cases and their entry in the national monitoring system, leaving policymakers without the up-to-date cas...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2022-06, Vol.16 (6), p.e0010441-e0010441
Main Authors: Miller, Sam, Preis, Tobias, Mizzi, Giovanni, Bastos, Leonardo Soares, Gomes, Marcelo Ferreira da Costa, Coelho, Flávio Codeço, Codeço, Claudia Torres, Moat, Helen Susannah
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Bayes Theorem
Brazil - epidemiology
Chikungunya fever
Chikungunya Fever - epidemiology
Chikungunya virus
Database searching
Forecasts and trends
Incidence
Internet/Web search services
Medicine and Health Sciences
Methods
Online searching
People and places
Physical Sciences
Search Engine
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Summary:Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, is a growing threat in Brazil, where over 640,000 cases have been reported since 2017. However, there are often long delays between diagnoses of chikungunya cases and their entry in the national monitoring system, leaving policymakers without the up-to-date case count statistics they need. In contrast, weekly data on Google searches for chikungunya is available with no delay. Here, we analyse whether Google search data can help improve rapid estimates of chikungunya case counts in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We build on a Bayesian approach suitable for data that is subject to long and varied delays, and find that including Google search data reduces both model error and uncertainty. These improvements are largest during epidemics, which are particularly important periods for policymakers. Including Google search data in chikungunya surveillance systems may therefore help policymakers respond to future epidemics more quickly.
ISSN:1935-2735
1935-2727
1935-2735
DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010441