Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using species distribution models

Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has histori...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2022-09, Vol.12 (1), p.16234-16234, Article 16234
Main Authors: Gómez-Undiano, Irene, Musavi, Francis, Mushobozi, Wilfred L., David, Grace M., Day, Roger, Early, Regan, Wilson, Kenneth
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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Agricultural land
Crop damage
Environmental conditions
Geographical distribution
Grasslands
Host plants
Humanities and Social Sciences
International trade
Introduced species
Invasive species
multidisciplinary
Nonnative species
Outbreaks
Pest outbreaks
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
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Summary:Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW’s present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-19983-y