Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2016-12, Vol.7 (1), p.13667-13667, Article 13667
Main Authors: Good, Peter, Booth, Ben B. B., Chadwick, Robin, Hawkins, Ed, Jonko, Alexandra, Lowe, Jason A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/694/1108
704/106/694/2786
Aerosols
climate and earth system modelling
Climate change
Earth Sciences
Emissions
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Global warming
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Precipitation
projection and prediction
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
System theory
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Summary:For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally. It is often assumed that each additional degree of global warming impacts regional climate equally. Here, Good et al . use the CMIP5 archive to show different precipitation changes arise from 0–2 K versus 2–4 K of warming above pre-industrial levels, partly from nonlinearity in underlying physical mechanisms.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/ncomms13667