Identifying the density of grassland fire points with kernel density estimation based on spatial distribution characteristics

• Published in: Open Geosciences 2021-07, Vol.13 (1), p.796-806
• Main Authors: Shuo, Zhen, Jingyu, Zhang, Zhengxiang, Zhang, Jianjun, Zhao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bandwidths; Density; grassland fire; Grassland management; Grasslands; Ripley’s K; risk; spatial cluster; Spatial distribution
• ISSN: 2391-5447; 2391-5447
• DOI: 10.1515/geo-2020-0265

Understanding the risk of grassland fire occurrence associated with historical fire point events is critical for implementing effective management of grasslands. This may require a model to convert the fire point records into continuous spatial distribution data. Kernel density estimation (KDE) can be used to represent the spatial distribution of grassland fire occurrences and decrease the influences historical records in point format with inaccurate positions. The bandwidth is the most important parameter because it dominates the amount of variation in the estimation of KDE. In this study, the spatial distribution characteristic of the points was considered to determine the bandwidth of KDE with the Ripley’s K function method. With high, medium, and low concentration scenes of grassland fire points, kernel density surfaces were produced by using the kernel function with four bandwidth parameter selection methods. For acquiring the best maps, the estimated density surfaces were compared by mean integrated squared error methods. The results show that Ripley’s K function method is the best bandwidth selection method for mapping and analyzing the risk of grassland fire occurrence with the dependent or inaccurate point variable, considering the spatial distribution characteristics.