Path Choice of Emergency Logistics Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

We study the problem of path choice for emergency logistics in this paper. Based on the uncertainty environment during the path choice from emergency logistics network and the bounded rationality of decision makers, cumulative prospect theory is introduced to study the problem of emergency logistics...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of advanced transportation 2019-01, Vol.2019 (2019), p.1-11
Main Authors: Zhu, Changfeng, Wang, Qingrong, Zhang, Zheng-kun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Attitudes
Aversion
Case studies
Decision making
Decision theory
Disaster relief
Disasters
Earthquakes
Emergencies
Expected utility
Genetic algorithms
Logistics
Mathematical models
Network management systems
Optimization
Parameters
Perturbation methods
Rationality
Reliability aspects
Risk aversion
Risk taking
Transportation
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Summary:We study the problem of path choice for emergency logistics in this paper. Based on the uncertainty environment during the path choice from emergency logistics network and the bounded rationality of decision makers, cumulative prospect theory is introduced to study the problem of emergency logistics path choice with comprehensive consideration of path properties and risk attitude of decision makers. In addition, the decision behavior of decision maker with the attitude of risk seeking and risk aversion under limited rationality is comprehensively analyzed respectively. Based on the choice behavior, a strategy to demarcate the value of reference point value is also proposed, and an optimization model is used to obtain the combined weight based on the moment estimation. Finally, both the theory and model are verified by calculation and compared analysis in a case study. In addition, perturbation analyses of related parameter are carried out to further reveal the influence mechanism between the prospect value of each path and related parameters. The result shows that the decision-making model can make emergency logistics path choice with higher efficiency and reliability under different complex interference conditions.
ISSN:0197-6729
2042-3195
DOI:10.1155/2019/8512423