A Simpler Method for Predicting Weight Loss in the First Year after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass

Factors postulated to predict weight loss after gastric bypass surgery, include race, age, gender, technique, height, and initial weight. This paper contained 1551 gastric bypass patients (85.9% female). Operations were performed by one surgeon (MLO) at community hospitals in Southern California fro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Obesity 2012-01, Vol.2012 (2012), p.127-131
Main Authors: Garner, William, Sczepaniak, John P., Wilson, Samuel E., Masukawa, Kristin, Dako, Farouk, Owens, Milton L.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:Factors postulated to predict weight loss after gastric bypass surgery, include race, age, gender, technique, height, and initial weight. This paper contained 1551 gastric bypass patients (85.9% female). Operations were performed by one surgeon (MLO) at community hospitals in Southern California from 1989 to 2008 with 314 being laparoscopic and 1237 open. We created the following equation: In[percent weight] =At2-Bt, where t was the time after operation (days) and A and B are constants. Analysis was completed on R-software. The model fits with R2 value 0.93 and gives patients a realistic mean target weight with a confidence interval of 95% for the first year. Conclusion. We created a curve predicting weight loss after surgery as a percentage of initial weight. Initial weight was the single most important predictor of weight loss after surgery. Other recorded variables accounted for less than 1% of variability. Unknown factors account for the remaining 6-7%.
ISSN:2090-0708
2090-0716
DOI:10.1155/2012/195251