FORECAST OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION OUTPUT IN AN OIL FIELD IN THE NIGER DELTA REGION OF NIGERIA

Crude oil production output forecast is very important in the formulation of genuine and suitable production policies; it is pivotal in planning and decision making. This paper explores the use of forecasting techniques to assist the oil field manager in decision making. In this analysis, statistica...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of industrial engineering & production research 2020-03, Vol.31 (1), p.161-170
Main Authors: Chinedum Mgbemena, Emmanuel Chinwuko
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
crude oil
forecasts
niger delta. oilfield
prediction error
production output
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Crude oil production output forecast is very important in the formulation of genuine and suitable production policies; it is pivotal in planning and decision making. This paper explores the use of forecasting techniques to assist the oil field manager in decision making. In this analysis, statistical models of projected trends which involves graphical, least squares, simple moving average and exponential smoothing methods were compared. The least squares method was found to be most suitable to capture the recent random nature of crude oil production output in the oilfield of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. In addition, a multiple linear regression model was developed for predicting daily, weekly, monthly or even yearly volume of crude oil production output in the oilfield facility.
ISSN:2008-4889
2345-363X
DOI:10.22068/ijiepr.31.1.161