Optimal Regional Allocation of Future Population and Employment under Urban Boundary and Density Constraints: A Spatial Interaction Modeling Approach

This paper develops an optimization modeling framework to select strategies of land development and population and employment densities for a growing metropolitan area. The modeling core involves a non-linear commuting model, which accounts for spatial structure variables and is empirically estimate...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Land (Basel) 2023-02, Vol.12 (2), p.433
Main Authors: Lee, David Jung-Hwi, Guldmann, Jean-Michel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accounting
City planning
Commuting
commuting spatial interactions
Congestion
Constraint modelling
Cost function
cost minimization
Costs
Development strategies
Economic aspects
Employment
employment location and density
Friction
Gender
Gravity
Housing prices
Interaction models
land availability
Land development
Linear programming
Mathematical optimization
Methods
Metropolitan areas
Minimum cost
Optimization models
Planning
Polynomials
population location and density
Real estate development
Regional planning
Regression models
Statistical models
Strategy
Transportation planning
urban boundary
Variables
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Summary:This paper develops an optimization modeling framework to select strategies of land development and population and employment densities for a growing metropolitan area. The modeling core involves a non-linear commuting model, which accounts for spatial structure variables and is empirically estimated by Tobit regression. This commuting model is then embedded into a non-linear optimization model that allocates increments in the population and employment (activities) to available land, while minimizing the total future commuting costs under various combinations of land expansion boundaries and population and employment densities. The resulting minimum cost surface is approximated via polynomial regression and combined with land development and congestion cost functions to derive the overall optimal strategy. These models are estimated and calibrated with data from the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) and Auditor’s property database, and are applied to the Fredericksburg metropolitan area, Virginia. The results demonstrate that the optimal development densities are very sensitive to the congestion cost function. A land development strategy that allows for limited sprawl might be a smart policy to reduce both regional vehicle mile travel (VMT) and related congestion and pollution.
ISSN:2073-445X
2073-445X
DOI:10.3390/land12020433