Space-Time Variation and Spatial Differentiation of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Hubei Province Based on Extended GWR

Clarifying the regional transmission mechanism of COVID-19 has practical significance for effective protection. Taking 103 county-level regions of Hubei Province as an example, and taking the fastest-spreading stage of COVID-19, which lasted from 29 January 2020, to 29 February 2020, as the research...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:ISPRS international journal of geo-information 2020-09, Vol.9 (9), p.536
Main Authors: Liu, Yanwen, He, Zongyi, Zhou, Xia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autocorrelation
China
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Data analysis
Differentiation
Disease transmission
Emigration and immigration
Epidemics
GTWR
Hubei province
Immigrants
Influence
MGWR
Migration
Population
Precipitation
Prevention
Regions
Regression analysis
Roads & highways
scale effect
spatio-temporal variation
Temporal variations
Viruses
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Summary:Clarifying the regional transmission mechanism of COVID-19 has practical significance for effective protection. Taking 103 county-level regions of Hubei Province as an example, and taking the fastest-spreading stage of COVID-19, which lasted from 29 January 2020, to 29 February 2020, as the research period, we systematically analyzed the population migration, spatio-temporal variation pattern of COVID-19, with emphasis on the spatio-temporal differences and scale effects of related factors by using the daily sliding, time-ordered data analysis method, combined with extended geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results state that: Population migration plays a two-way role in COVID-19 variation. The emigrants’ and immigrants’ population of Wuhan city accounted for 3.70% and 73.05% of the total migrants’ population respectively; the restriction measures were not only effective in controlling the emigrants, but also effective in preventing immigrants. COVID-19 has significant spatial autocorrelation, and spatio-temporal differentiation has an effect on COVID-19. Different factors have different degrees of effect on COVID-19, and similar factors show different scale effects. Generally, the pattern of spatial differentiation is a transitional pattern of parallel bands from east to west, and also an epitaxial radiation pattern centered in the Wuhan 1 + 8 urban circle. This paper is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal evolution of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, so as to provide a reference for similar epidemic prevention.
ISSN:2220-9964
2220-9964
DOI:10.3390/ijgi9090536