A Novel Hybrid Model for Short-Term Forecasting in PV Power Generation

The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the ou...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of photoenergy 2014-01, Vol.2014 (2014), p.1-9
Main Authors: Wu, Yuan-Kang, Abdul Rahman, H., Chen, Chao-Rong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Forecasting
Learning theory
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Modules
Neural networks
Photovoltaic cells
Power plants
Solar cells
Solar energy
Solar power generation
Studies
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the output of a photovoltaic (PV) system is influenced by irradiation, cloud cover, and other weather conditions. These factors make it difficult to conduct short-term PV output forecasting. In this paper, an experimental database of solar power output, solar irradiance, air, and module temperature data has been utilized. It includes data from the Green Energy Office Building in Malaysia, the Taichung Thermal Plant of Taipower, and National Penghu University. Based on the historical PV power and weather data provided in the experiment, all factors that influence photovoltaic-generated energy are discussed. Moreover, five types of forecasting modules were developed and utilized to predict the one-hour-ahead PV output. They include the ARIMA, SVM, ANN, ANFIS, and the combination models using GA algorithm. Forecasting results show the high precision and efficiency of this combination model. Therefore, the proposed model is suitable for ensuring the stable operation of a photovoltaic generation system.
ISSN:1110-662X
1687-529X
DOI:10.1155/2014/569249