Near Future Projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming

The Indian summer monsoon’s (ISM) response to low (1.5 °C) and medium (2.0 °C) warming scenarios are examined during the period 2021–2050 using 11 member ensembles of the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1-CAM5) datasets. We find that in the near-term period an increase...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Atmosphere 2022-07, Vol.13 (7), p.1081
Main Authors: Choudhury, Devanil, Nath, Debashis, Chen, Wen
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
1.5 °C
2.0 °C
Anticyclones
Carbon
CESM1
Circulation
Climate change
Datasets
Easterlies
Greenhouse effect
High pressure
Indian Ocean
Indian summer monsoon
Moisture content
Moisture effects
Monsoon circulation
Monsoon precipitation
Monsoons
Oceans
Paris Agreement
Precipitation
Simulation
South China Sea
Strengthening
Summer
Summer circulation
Summer monsoon
Water content
Wind
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Summary:The Indian summer monsoon’s (ISM) response to low (1.5 °C) and medium (2.0 °C) warming scenarios are examined during the period 2021–2050 using 11 member ensembles of the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1-CAM5) datasets. We find that in the near-term period an increase in warming by 0.5 °C will strengthen the monsoon circulation and precipitation over the Indian landmass and east Asia. Under the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the ISM circulation will weaken, and precipitation will exhibit a decreasing trend, while the ISM precipitation and circulation will strengthen under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. The strengthening of ISM under the 2.0 °C warming scenario is due to the strengthening of the South China Sea (SCS) anticyclone and a high-pressure center near the Philippine Island. This high-pressure center over the SCS will facilitate a cross-basin strengthening of the easterly wind from the western Pacific Ocean/SCS to the equatorial Indian Ocean, which will, in turn, strengthen the transport of the Pacific-origin moisture to the Indian subcontinent and East Asia. This increase in moisture content over the Indian subcontinent will strengthen the monsoonal circulation and precipitation under the 2.0 °C warming scenario.
ISSN:2073-4433
2073-4433
DOI:10.3390/atmos13071081