Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study

A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between stay...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2021-03, Vol.11 (1), p.5313-5313
Main Authors: Savaris, R F, Pumi, G, Dalzochio, J, Kunst, R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - mortality
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 - transmission
COVID-19 - virology
Disease transmission
Ecological studies
Epidemiology
Europe - epidemiology
Global Health
Health Policy
Humans
Internet - statistics & numerical data
Linear Models
Mathematical models
Pandemics - prevention & control
Pandemics - statistics & numerical data
Population Dynamics - statistics & numerical data
Quarantine - standards
Regression analysis
SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity
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Summary:A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in several regions in the world. In this ecological study, data from www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ , ourworldindata.org and covid.saude.gov.br were combined. Countries with > 100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥ 67 were included. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. The analysis was performed using linear regression with special attention to residual analysis. After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. Only 63 (1.6%) comparisons were significant. With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~ 98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.
ISSN:2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-84092-1