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The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—exposed—inf...
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Published in: | Scientific reports 2021-05, Vol.11 (1), p.9545-9545, Article 9545 |
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creator | Lao, Xuying Luo, Li Lei, Zhao Fang, Ting Chen, Yi Liu, Yuhui Ding, Keqin Zhang, Dongliang Wang, Rong Zhao, Zeyu Rui, Jia Zhu, Yuanzhao Xu, Jingwen Wang, Yao Yang, Meng Yi, Bo Chen, Tianmu |
description | A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—exposed—infectious—asymptomatic—recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher’s Exact Test,
P
= 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (
χ
2
= 0.052,
P
= 0.819) by Kruskal–Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (
R
eff
) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41598-021-88473-4 |
format | article |
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P
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χ
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P
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R
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P
= 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (
χ
2
= 0.052,
P
= 0.819) by Kruskal–Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (
R
eff
) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. 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in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China</atitle><jtitle>Scientific reports</jtitle><stitle>Sci Rep</stitle><addtitle>Sci Rep</addtitle><date>2021-05-05</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>11</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>9545</spage><epage>9545</epage><pages>9545-9545</pages><artnum>9545</artnum><issn>2045-2322</issn><eissn>2045-2322</eissn><abstract>A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible—exposed—infectious—asymptomatic—recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher’s Exact Test,
P
= 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (
χ
2
= 0.052,
P
= 0.819) by Kruskal–Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (
R
eff
) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>33953243</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41598-021-88473-4</doi><tpages>1</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | 639/705/1041 692/699/255 Asymptomatic Asymptomatic infection Coronaviridae Coronaviruses COVID-19 Epidemiology Humanities and Social Sciences Infections multidisciplinary Outbreaks Science Science (multidisciplinary) Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Statistical analysis |
title | The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China |
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