Predicting procedure duration of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection at Western endoscopy centers

• Published in: Endoscopy International Open 2023-08, Vol.11 (8), p.E724-E732
• Main Authors: Dang, Hao, Dekkers, Nik, Steyerberg, Ewout W., Baldaque-Silva, Francisco, Omae, Masami, Haasnoot, Krijn J.C., van Tilburg, Laurelle, Nobbenhuis, Kate, van der Kraan, Jolein, Langers, Alexandra M.J., van Hooft, Jeanin E., de Graaf, Wilmar, Koch, Arjun D., Didden, Paul, Moons, Leon M.G., Hardwick, James C.H., Boonstra, Jurjen J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Colorectal cancer; Endoscopic resection (polypectomy, ESD, EMRc, ...); Endoscopy Lower GI Tract; Original article; Polyps / adenomas; Preparation; Quality and logistical aspects
• ISSN: 2364-3722; 2196-9736
• DOI: 10.1055/a-2122-0419

Background and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to evaluate existing and new prediction models for ESD duration. Patients and methods Records of all consecutive patients who underwent single, non-hybrid colorectal ESDs before 2020 at three Dutch centers were reviewed. The performance of an Eastern prediction model [GIE 2021;94(1):133–144] was assessed in the Dutch cohort. A prediction model for procedure duration was built using multivariable linear regression. The model’s performance was validated using internal validation by bootstrap resampling, internal-external cross-validation and external validation in an independent Swedish ESD cohort. Results A total of 435 colorectal ESDs were analyzed (92% en bloc resections, mean duration 139 minutes, mean tumor size 39 mm). The performance of current unstandardized time scheduling practice was suboptimal (explained variance: R2=27%). We successfully validated the Eastern prediction model for colorectal ESD duration