Over half of western United States' most abundant tree species in decline

• Published in: Nature communications 2021-01, Vol.12 (1), p.451-11, Article 451
• Main Authors: Stanke, Hunter, Finley, Andrew O., Domke, Grant M., Weed, Aaron S., MacFarlane, David W.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 631/158/1145; 631/158/2454; 631/158/670; 631/158/672; Anthropogenic factors; Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources; Disturbance; Ecological Parameter Monitoring - statistics & numerical data; Ecological Parameter Monitoring - trends; Forest ecosystems; Forest management; Forests; Herbivores; Humanities and Social Sciences; Models, Statistical; Montane environments; Mortality; Mountain forests; multidisciplinary; Plant Dispersal; Plant species; Population decline; Population dynamics; Populations; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Spatial Analysis; Species; Temperate forests; Trees; United States
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20678-z

Changing forest disturbance regimes and climate are driving accelerated tree mortality across temperate forests. However, it remains unknown if elevated mortality has induced decline of tree populations and the ecological, economic, and social benefits they provide. Here, we develop a standardized forest demographic index and use it to quantify trends in tree population dynamics over the last two decades in the western United States. The rate and pattern of change we observe across species and tree size-distributions is alarming and often undesirable. We observe significant population decline in a majority of species examined, show decline was particularly severe, albeit size-dependent, among subalpine tree species, and provide evidence of widespread shifts in the size-structure of montane forests. Our findings offer a stark warning of changing forest composition and structure across the western US, and suggest that sustained anthropogenic and natural stress will likely result in broad-scale transformation of temperate forests globally. The nature of forest disturbances are changing, yet consequences for forest dynamics remain uncertain. Using a new index, Stanke et al. show the populations of over half of the most abundant tree species in the western US have declined in the last two decades, with grim implications for how temperate forests globally will respond to sustained anthropogenic and natural stress.